fugitive peace

When I was in Russia, where hard information was like gold dust, people would occasionally start rumours for a bet. You won a prize if the rumour made it into the press. It’s a risky game. Doing some interviews in Ramallah yesterday, I – through a simple misunderstanding – accidentally started the rumour that a prestigious charity led by a very important Palestinian personage was among the NGOs being investigated for administrative irregularities. I got the rumour quashed, but not before the important personage had called up the chief of staff of the interior ministry demanding to know what was going on.

But another rumour I heard yesterday seems to be gaining credibility, though I haven’t yet seen it reported outside the Arabic and Israeli media. This is that Saeb Erekat, the Palestinians’ long-time chief negotiator and one of their most public spokesmen, is about to lose his job – even as Olmert and Abbas negotiate an agreement of principles for the peace conference due in November.

Why Erekat would go now is unclear (I haven’t yet gotten hold of him myself to ask), but that hasn’t stopped le tout Ramallah from speculating. Some say it’s because he’s been ineffective in setting the Palestinian agenda for the current talks. Others think maybe he’s been leaking to the press too much about the talks – which he may have done, but I doubt it’s a firing offence. Or perhaps it’s because he and Salam Fayyad, the prime minister, don’t get on too well; but would Abbas really let Fayyad meddle in negotiations to that extent? Finally and most conspiratorially, it’s that Erekat is being cleared aside for the ex-prime minister and chief negotiator of the Oslo Accords, Ahmed Qurei (Abu Alaa).

My sources are silent on this, and Abu Alaa’s office reportedly denied it. Why would he be put into such a job? A friend reminds me that Abu Alaa and Shimon Peres came up with a peace plan in 2001, after the intifada broke out, which called for creating a Palestinian state in stages. In their original version, Israel would recognise a Palestinian state in the areas already under Palestinian Authority control, and the final borders and other issues would be dealt with later. Could they be planning a re-run, in which Israel recognises a Palestinian state in the West Bank, and leaves Gaza until later?

Perhaps – though if that were the intention, you surely wouldn’t need Abu Alaa and Peres themselves to make it happen. In any case, it’s far from clear that Abu Alaa is taking over. But if Erekat is indeed leaving, it may signal some kind of shift in the Olmert-Abbas talks, which seem to have produced little progress up to now.

(And if anyone bet a bottle of champagne that the rumour about Abu Alaa would get published: congratulations, and please would you save me a glass?)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 at 11:55 am and is filed under Palestinian politics, rumours, spin.